The global shipbuilding industry is gearing up for a major upturn. Goldman Sachs analysts predict that driven by decarbonization requirements, the renewal of old fleets, and the growth of global trade, the industry will experience a multi-stage upward cycle that will last until 2032. Among them, Chinese shipyards, with their capacity expansion and cost advantages, are expected to dominate the global market share competition.
A latest report from Goldman Sachs indicates that the global shipbuilding industry is entering a multi-year upgrading cycle, and Chinese shipyards will play a central role in it.
The Goldman Sachs report on September 2nd predicts that driven by environmental regulations, aging fleets, and trade growth, the global shipbuilding industry is entering a multi-stage, long-term upward cycle that may last until 2032, bringing in new ship orders worth 1.2 trillion US dollars. In this expansion, Chinese shipyards will lead the global capacity growth.
We are optimistic about the long-term upward cycle of the shipbuilding industry and believe that environmental requirements and the need to replace the aging fleet will be the key long-term driving factors.
Decarbonization and Fleet Renewal: The Key Drivers of New Orders
Analysts predict that between 2025 and 2032, the total global new ship orders will reach 441 million corrected gross tonnage (CGT), with a total value of up to 1.2 trillion US dollars.
Among these, decarbonization regulations will contribute 26% of the demand, fleet replacement demand will account for 48%, and trade growth will contribute 26%. The report states that decarbonization and replacement demands will extend this upward cycle through the continuous promotion of new ship orders, especially after 2029, when the ships delivered in 2009-2012 will exceed 20 years of age and urgently need to be replaced by more environmentally friendly new ships.
Environmental regulations (26%): Increasingly strict decarbonization regulations are the core variable driving new orders. The report analyzes that by 2035, due to the increase in carbon emission penalty costs, the operating costs of traditional fuel ships will be higher than those of ships using alternative fuels such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) and methanol. To meet compliance targets, by 2035, the proportion of alternative fuel ships needs to increase to 50%.
Fleet renewal and replacement (48%): This is the largest source of demand in this cycle. The large number of ships delivered during the previous shipbuilding boom (2009-2012) will reach 20 years of age by around 2029 and enter a large-scale replacement stage. The replacement demand for oil tankers, bulk carriers, and gas carriers is particularly prominent.
Trade growth (26%): The steady growth of global trade continues to provide fundamental support for new ship orders.
China leads in capacity expansion
Goldman Sachs predicts that the prices of new ships will remain high during the period from 2025 to 2028, although they may slightly decline by 12% compared to the peak in 2024. This is mainly due to the discipline in production capacity and the stronger structural demand for new orders. The report emphasizes that the global capacity expansion mainly comes from Chinese shipyards, while shipyards in South Korea and Japan maintain relatively conservative levels.
Based on a bottom-up analysis of the schedules and historical delivery data of over 400 shipyards worldwide, as well as the announced capacity expansion plans, Goldman Sachs' findings show that although the expected delivery volume is projected to increase from 41 million corrected gross tons in 2024 to 52 million corrected gross tons in 2027, representing a growth of 27%, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of global shipyards during the period from 2025 to 2027 is only 2%.
This growth is mainly driven by the expansion of Chinese shipyards (new shipyards and the reopening of old shipyards). The proportion of China's shipbuilding capacity in the global capacity is continuously increasing, and its efficient construction capabilities and cost advantages are important factors attracting new orders.
Opportunities and Challenges in China's Shipbuilding Industry
The report specifically analyzed the impact of the increase in port service fees charged by the United States for Chinese-built ships on China's shipbuilding industry, and concluded that the negative impact was limited.
The report presented two core data points: Firstly, currently, among the international fleets that call at US ports globally, ships built or operated by China account for only 4%; Secondly, the volume of US imports and exports only constitutes 12% of the global maritime trade volume. This implies that shipowners have sufficient flexibility to redeploy Chinese-built ships to other routes.
The report pointed out that the decline in market share of Chinese shipyards in 2025 was not primarily due to geopolitical factors, but rather its own extremely tight production capacity - the backlog of orders covers an average of 3.7 years, far exceeding the 3 years of South Korea and Japan. This led some eager shipowners to turn to other shipyards.
However, this precisely constitutes a long-term opportunity for Chinese shipyards. As China's shipyards expand their production capacity and gradually deliver existing orders, their more attractive price advantage will become prominent, helping to regain market share. Data shows that this trend may have already begun. In June and July 2025, the market shares of new orders received by Chinese shipyards rose to 69%, far higher than 49% in the previous five months.